Just rewatched this again. I’ve been thinking about Thailand’s future.

Serious change is coming, serious changes… have already happened. Nobody can stop these changes. [...] The royalists try to create this ‘authoritarian-civilian’ regime [referring to the Abhisit government and its never-ending state of emergency] to maintain the status quo. No, they can’t… it will change. The question is how much the cost would be, how much damage it would be. I don’t have [a] clear idea yet.

Thongchai Winichakul

I met a good friend for coffee today, who basically said the same thing – what are ‘those’ people thinking by delaying the inevitable? What is the end game scenario that they think ‘they’ are looking for?

The historical parallel that is perhaps being talked about might be the ‘October’ generation of student activists. In 1976, the student movement which had 3 years ago forced out the Thanom-Prapas-Narong regime was brutally crushed. The core of the movement scattered and went underground, most notably joining the Communist Party of Thailand’s fledging insurgency forces. The Thanin government that followed was perhaps the most repressive in modern history.

Perhaps the lessons learned was to keep the repression on (which seems to be happening to some extent), and push dissenters to the fringe of society. Eventually graciously grant an amnesty to bring the misguided out from the jungles.

But times are… a-changing. I’m of the opinion that we’ve seen a fundamental shift in the expectations of the rural electorate. They’ve seen the power of their votes put governments in power, and they’ve seen it taken away not once but twice. You can’t really marginalize the majority of your people without seeing consequences. ‘Cost’ and ‘damage’ indeed.

With impeccable timing, the EC announced the decision to ban the Democrats. The cases will now go to the Constitutional Court. I’ve been reading here and there whether party executives will face the 5 year ban as TRT and PPP exec had.

There are two cases, the first being the misreporting of the TPI Polene donation and the second being the mishandling of 29 million of EC funds. The second case had a 5:0 vote.

I’m trying to make sense of the Political Party Act BE 2550. There are two key sections related to dissolutions – section 97 (dissolution, with only the provision that execs cannot setup another party for 5 years) and section 98 (dissolution with 5 year ban from politics). Section 98 lays out conditions for its application as:

• Violation of Sections 82 or 94. Section 94 doesn’t really apply to the Dems as none of the two cases seems to related directly to election outcomes. Section 82, however should apply – it relates to the correct reporting of EC funds given to political parties.
• Executives were directly involved, were aware of the matter or negligent, or found out about the matter and did not act to stop or undo. The case might hinged on this fact.

Let’s wait and see how this will play out…

I’ve been (belatedly) catching up on news since this new round of Red protests started to make headlines in the international press. Having been away for so long, and I’m pretty surprised how much Thai political discussion on the internet has moved on to Twitter. Quite a few bloggers are tweeting, and you get points of views from people who are not into long-form blogging. With people retweeting constantly, you get a very broad set of news and opinions.

I’m following:

@bangkokpundit: BP doing his usual great job of covering Thai political news.

@fringer: I haven’t seen Fringer blog directly on the political situation for a while , but she has been tweeting away.

@chaturon: Chaturon Chaisaeng, the banned TRT pol and former student leader.

@veenarat: Roon pi and Nation Channel journalist.

@karmanomad: Nirmal Ghosh, Strait Times’s Bangkok correspondent.

As reported by Khun Chutimas of chut|bloc, Prawes Wasi has recently come out to call for a government of national unity (รัฐบาลแห่งชาติ) of sorts. He observes that when the PPP gets the majority and forms a government, people are unhappy and protest; and even if the Democrats are in power, pro-PPP people will protest too. The way out of confrontation, when it’s gets more escalated, is for all parties to form a national government.

Who is to head it? Prawes is silent on that, but Matichon (via chut|bloc) speculates that a neutral statesman (in the mould of Anand Panyarachun, who incidentally went on record as saying Parliament had failed to function properly) would have to head it.

Sigh… with everything these days, there’s a sense of deja vu. I hope they still remember that even under this constitution, the PM still has to be elected. Article 7, anyone? Khun Chutima has a funny guide to (royal?) artificial rain-making.

Nothing surprising about this though, pressure has been on the PPP since it was clear that they will form a government. Its two coalition partners are under threat of dissolution from the courts, and Chart Thai seems to be losing its nerve to be part of the PPP government. Thai-style check and balances?

Update: Bangkok Pundit asks if the eel is jumping ship…

I’m trying to ease myself back into this whole blogging business, which I must admit is a bit hard with all the things that have gone on in Thailand during my hiatus. There are a great many things I want to write about, but at this point it seems my thoughts are in the process of swirling around in my head. At some point they will take solid form in a blog post.

I thought a good start would be to take Bookish to its roots (of sorts) and see what I have been reading. In the spare time that I have, I’ve basically been trolling the one-and-a-half shelf our university library devotes to Thai history and reading what I can. While I first checked out much referenced texts, like Chaianan and Morell’s Political Conflict in Thailand or Thak’s Thailand: The Politics of Despotic Paternalism, probably the book I enjoyed most was Duncan McCargo’s Chamlong Srimuang and the New Thai Politics.

The ‘new politics’ of the title is now a bit old, but I found this political biography of the Young Turk soldier turned politician, turned democracy activist very engaging. For my generation which grew up with the image of Chamlong as a hunger-striking protester or as an ascetic who bathes with one kun of water a day, it’s easy to forget that Chamlong was deeply involved in behind the scenes politics (supposedly the 6 October events and subsequent coups) early in his military career. I thought the retelling of the events between 6 October and the Prem government quite gripping and gave me new insights to that period of history.

The Chamlong that emerges from the book is very different from my initial impressions — still not someone that I admire, but a complex individual of sometimes conflicting motivations. And to think that he was the one who gave Thaksin Shinawatra his first taste of politics…

I found this funny, revealing and ultimately kinda sad: our ICT minister doesn’t use the web or even email…

From: Suthichai Yoon’s blog

เพิ่งฟัง​​ ​​รมต​​. ​​ไอซีทีสิทธิชัย​​ ​​โภไคยอุดม​​​ให้​​​สัมภาษณ์ทางวิทยุ​​​เมื่อสักครู่​​…​​ยืนยันว่า​​​เป็น​​​คน​​ “​ตกรุ่น​” ​​และ​​​ไม่​​​เคยอ่านเว็บเลย​​…”​ดัง​​​นั้น​​​ถ้า​​​ใคร​​​จะ​​​ให้​​​ผมอ่านเว็บ​​​ใน​​​อินเตอร์​​​เน็ทเมื่อฟัง​​​ความ​​​เห็นของ​​​เขา​​​ก็ลืมเสียเถิด​​ ​​เพราะ​​​ผมแก่​​​แล้ว​​…​​ไม่​​​อ่านเว็บ​​..”

คุณสิทธิชัยยอมรับ​​​กับ​​​นักข่าวก่อนหน้านี้ว่า​​​ไม่​​​ติดต่อ​​​กับ​​​ใครผ่านอี​​​เมล์​​​เหมือน​​​กัน​​ ​”​​เพราะ​​​ผมแก่​​​แล้ว​”

Just listened to ICT Minister Sitthichai Pookaiyaudom giving an interview on radio a bit earlier… [He] insists that he’s “old-fashioned” and has never used the web. [He said,] “therefore if anyone wants me to read their opinions on the web, forget about it. Because I’m too old… don’t use the web…”

Mr. Sitthichai admitted to reporters earlier that he does not interact with anyone via email either. “Because I’m too old.”

What can I say except… sigh.

Update: The full story from the Nation is available (via 2bangkok.com).

He does use the web for a few sites it seems. Interesting quotes:

He said he had “not even glanced” at most of the five sites he was responsible for closing.

He sets his own criteria. To criticise the Privy Council president is a threat to national security, he said.

Sigh… (again).

YouTube, Pantip.com and now… a film by award-winning Thai director Apichatpong Weerasethakul. As reported on Chalermthai, Pantip.com’s entertainment webboard, the censors mandated that 4 key scenes be cut for it to be allowed in Thai theaters. The director decided to pull the movie, slated to open on April 19, from distribution rather than have the cut version shown.

Film censorship isn’t new in Thailand, but from what I gather in this case, our moral guardians seem to be extra sensitive due to perhaps the current political situation. I’m guessing (from stills of scenes that were said to be censored and the synopsis) that the censors objected to the portrayal of two respected vocations in the film: monks and doctors.

I like the way thaiindie.com describes it (see their site for accompanying pictures) – the censors are said to have requested cuts for scenes in which the following rules were violated:

1. The monk should not play guitar
2. The doctor should not drink liquor
3. The doctor hard on scene [Doctor gets a bit excited after kissing his girlfriend]
4. The monk should not play something like this [a Frisbee]

Sigh…

In a way, the case is symptomatic of where Thailand is right now as a country. A group of unaccountable people deciding what people can see, hear or say. Different standards in law applied arbitrarily without transparency.

Further reading:
– Manager Online article (seems the censor board is holding the print of the film hostage) – http://manager.co.th/Entertainment/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9500000042073
– A review of the movie: hhttp://www.variety.com/review/VE1117931429.html?categoryid=31&cs=1&p=0

I wonder how the Americans will react… Gen. Saprang in response to rumors of a counter-coup:

แต่ผมคิดว่าการปฏิวัติ​จะ​เกิดขึ้นเสมอ​ ​ถ้า​มี​เหตุ​ให้​เกิด​ ​ประชาธิปไตยที่อเมริกายิ่ง​ใหญ่​ ​แต่ทำ​ไมปล่อยท่านเบอร์ริส​ ​เยลซิน​ ​อดีตประธานาธิบดีรัสเซีย​ ​เอาปืน​ใหญ่​ยิง​ใส่​อาคารรัฐสภา​ ทำ​ไมปล่อยปากีสถานปฏิวัติ​ ​โดย​นายเปเวส​ ​มูชาราฟ​ ​แล้ว​ยัง​มี​ความ​นับถือ​กัน​อยู่​ ​เพราะ​ผลประ​โยชน์ของชาติสำ​คัญกว่า

But I think a coup could always happen, if there’s a [legitimate?] reason for it. Democracy is acclaimed in America, but why did they let Boris Yeltsin storm parliament with artillery? Why let Pervez Musharraf overthrow the government in Pakistan and still be respected? Because national interest is paramount…

Indeed, how could they let the generals in Thailand… oh wait, that’s me!

But seriously, is General Saprang increasingly becoming a liability to the junta? With the controversy arising from his AOT study trip to Europe and his increasingly frequent off-the-cuff public statements, he may have less chance to succeed Gen. Sonthi as commander-in-chief of the army.

I think the problem has a lot to do with the image Saprang seems to be projecting – one of slight arrogance. Our military rulers , perhaps taking their cue from Prem, have tried to project an image of benevolent “good soldiers,” responding to criticism in kindly, civil tones and imploring all to care about Thailand’s unity. From what I’ve read, Saprang has consistently been the combative one in answering criticisms of the junta with barbs of his own. It just doesn’t fit the mold of a senior statesman, General.

Update: In the same interview (well, one of those ambushes that the Thai press, with their mics and voice recorders, make on newsmakers), the general lets it slip what he thinks is the public perception of himself – heroic?:

ชี้​แจง​อยู่​แล้ว​ ​แต่​ไม่​จำ​เป็น​ต้อง​ทำ​เป็น​หนังสือ​ ​เพราะ​ไม่​ใช่​จำ​เลย​ ​เราวีรบุรุษ

Of course I will clarify, but there’s no need to do it in writing. Because [we're] not the defendant here, we [are] heroes.

To the two or three people who still read this blog after my long absence: the reason I’m been away for so long is that I have just moved to the US and started some graduate work somewhere in Washingto, DC. So far it’s been overwhelming, to say the least.

The coup in Thailand was what is bringing me back here for this short post. Thaksin is not my dream PM, but the way this event unfolded shock, angered, disappointed and saddened me at the same time. Haven’t quite collected my thoughts even though it’s been quite a while, but I’d like to recommend you read Thongchai Winichakul’s piece here (via Bangkok Pundit).